Small towns are afraid that politicians in big cities will grab power in the provinces – see on the plane what kind of decision makers could come to your area | Yle news

We calculated what the councils of the new welfare areas would look like if we voted like in municipal elections. The voter has to consider which one weighs more in the regional election: the domicile of the candidate or the party base.

In the January elections, Finns will elect regional councilors to the councils of 21 welfare areas. Photo: Matti Kurkela / Yle

Power will be available when Finns vote in the regional elections next January. Voters elect regional councils, which exercise supreme decision-making power in new welfare areas.

So who in the regions are currently exercising power? We did a thought game: how would political power be divided if Finns voted in the regional elections in the same way as in the June municipal elections? Yle’s regional council machine tells you which parties, which municipal representatives and politicians of any age would decide on matters in your neighborhood:

RELATED :  Negotiations on terms and conditions of employment in the technology industry - the parties disagree even on what happens if no agreement is reached | Yle news

Some of the content of the article may not be accessible, for example, with a screen reader.

Regional councilors exercise significant power, but so far Finns have a diligent attitude towards the elections. According to a recent poll, only four in ten are going to vote in regional elections for sure. According to another study, more than half of those eligible to vote do not even know what to vote for in an election.

This would divide the power of the parties

If the result of the regional elections were in line with the voting in the last municipal elections, the Coalition Party would receive the most regional councilors nationwide. Second would be the center and third would be the SDP. Photo: Matti Kurkela / Yle

According to Yle’s regional council machine, the center would become the largest party in nine regional councils. A total of 21 regional councils will come to Finland. The city center has traditionally been dominant in northern and eastern Finland.

If the regional elections were voted in the same way as the municipal elections, the SDP would get the most delegates in the six welfare areas. They are mainly in the zone from south-eastern Finland to Satakunta. According to the calculation, the Coalition Party would dominate Southwest Finland, Pirkanmaa and the three welfare areas to be established in Uusimaa.

In Eastern Uusimaa and Ostrobothnia, the NCB would receive more regional commissioners than the other groups combined.

According to Yle’s calculation, the Coalition Party would receive 281 regional commissioners and the center and the SDP each country about ten less than the commissioners. Basic Finns would have 220 delegates, the Greens 114 and the Left Alliance 92.

Kuntalehti has previously published a similar calculation (you switch to another service). The magazine came to a similar conclusion as Yle’s modeling, which is not about research: it is by no means certain that Finns will vote in regional elections in the same way as in municipal elections.

Despite the shortcomings, the best material

According to election researcher Sami Borg, the turnout in the regional elections cannot yet be estimated. He hopes the percentage would rise above 40. Photo: Kirsi Matson-Mäkelä / General

Election researcher Sami Borg The University of Tampere considers Yle’s calculation to be indicative, although it is not a forecast. Both Borg and the Association of Local Authorities’ research manager Marianne Pekola-Sjöblom are of the opinion that the calculation based on the municipal election results is based on the best available information.

Still, many things have time to change between the June municipal elections and the January regional elections.

– What is crucial is how the nomination is formed, how the election campaign is successful and how people are excited to vote, Borg says.

Pekola-Sjöblom estimates that the calculation of the regional council machine is at its strongest in measuring party support, even though the machine does not take into account the electoral alliances formed by the parties in the municipal elections.

– Are MPs and other municipal rake voters now running for office? This could shake the parties ’power relations, he ponders.

At least for the time being, a large number of MPs are reluctant to run for office, and mayors do not seem to be enthusiastic about the candidacy either.

The lack of attractive candidates can also be reflected in the voting of Finns.

– I do not know if I am unnecessarily optimistic, but I hope to get more than 40 percent readings, Borg says.

Many municipalities are left without a representative

Marianne Pekola-Sjöblom, the research manager of the Association of Finnish Local and Regional Authorities, believes that the dominance of large cities in regional councils is not as great as the results of the municipal elections show. Photo: Ronnie Holmberg / Yle

In small municipalities, there have been concerns that regional council candidates are taking over regional councils and small municipalities are left without representatives.

According to experts, there is cause for concern. However, Borg and Pekola-Sjöblom point out that more detailed conclusions from the data than supported by the party are highly uncertain. The distribution of age, gender and domicile of future delegates cannot yet be properly predicted.

In Yle’s regional council machine, based on the results of the municipal elections, the majority of decision-makers’ seats go to candidates in the central cities. Pekola-Sjöblom does not believe that the representation of central cities would actually become as strong.

– On the other hand, in nine welfare areas, more than half of the residents live in the city center. As many as 87 per cent of the residents of the Vantaa-Kerava welfare area live in Vantaa and about 70 per cent of the residents of the Central Ostrobothnia welfare area in Kokkola. Candidates in the downtown area have an advantage, he says.

The Coalition Party’s think tank Toivo ended in its own report of the regional council (you switch to another service) the result that in eight welfare areas, the central city would have a simple majority in the regional councils. According to the study, at least 60 small municipalities would be left completely without their own representative. The think tank’s calculation was based on the 2017 municipal election results.

– It is very likely that some small municipalities will be left without a delegate. On the other hand, regional councils decide on matters for the whole region, not for an individual municipality, Borg says.

According to Pekola-Sjöblom, however, the municipalities of the delegates in practice influence the decisions made by the regional council.

– The place of residence should not matter, but in reality the number of delegates received by the central cities has an impact.

Voter choice: will domicile or party decide?

Something can be deduced from the voting behavior of the residents of small municipalities on the basis of the 2008 municipal elections. At that time, several municipalities had been connected in the Hämeenlinna, Kouvola and Salo regions.

– The small municipalities involved in those electoral alliances received their candidates for the councils according to their population and even more, Pekola-Sjöblom says.

In small municipalities, voters in regional elections may have to consider which is more important, the candidate’s party base or domicile. The electoral system guarantees the representation of parties in regional councils but does not equalize the division of power between large and small localities.

According to Pekola-Sjöblom, the nomination of parties is of great importance to small municipalities. For example, in the last municipal elections in Juupajoki, Pirkanmaa, less than a thousand people voted. In the Hervanta district of Tampere alone, there were ten times as many voters. Parties struggling for the highest possible vote catch have to think about what kind of candidates they should nominate.

Ultimately, ensuring regional representation remains the responsibility of voters.

– But that’s how it stays in every election, Sami Borg sums up.

Are you concerned about the dominance of big cities? What interests the regional election? You can discuss the topic until 11 pm on September 29, 2021.